MLB win totals 2024: Projecting every team's record for the new season

So, we’re saying that there’s a chance.

This upcoming Major League Baseball season will be dominated by talk of one superteam, and perhaps a few more clubs can join the Los Angeles Dodgers in what’s presumed to be a 100-win campaign.

But parity figures to be the watchword throughout this 2024 season.

As USA TODAY Sports’ six-person panel releases this year’s projected win totals, a few themes emerge. Yes, the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani should run away with the National League West; the Atlanta Braves may join them as 100-win division champs from the NL East.

Yet, as the expanded playoff format hits its third year and fewer teams out-and-out throw in the towel, the wins should be much more closely distributed. We saw as much last year, when 90 wins was enough to win the AL West and 87 wins captured the AL Central. The NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks won just 84 games to claim a wild card spot – and then captured the NL pennant.

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That’s not to say there aren't a few dogs already out of this fight, starting in Oakland. But as the season approaches, a look at our panel’s aggregate record projections indicate several closely-bunched races:

AL East

Holy Brady Anderson: For the first time since probably the late 1990s, the Baltimore Orioles are consensus favorites to win this division, and why not? Adding Corbin Burnes and top prospect Jackson Holliday to a 101-win, young core means this club has few if any discernible holes… Just what did the New York Yankees buy with one year of Juan Soto? He and Aaron Judge might be the game’s greatest show all year, but it may only guarantee them a best-of-three crack in the wild-card round … The Toronto Blue Jays have been wonderfully consistent the past three years, but a next step remains elusive. Even if lineup pieces remain inconsistent, that lovely pitching rotation should get them back to the playoffs … It was a grim decline from the Tampa Bay Rays’ glorious 27-6 start and now the attrition might be too much for them to overcome, at least in this division. It would help if Ryan Pepiot, the key return in the Tyler Glasnow trade, becomes their next great pitching success story. … The additions of Lucas Giolito, Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom might not free the Boston Red Sox out of their new digs in the cellar.  

AL Central

First team to 85 wins? That might do it and the Minnesota Twins hope it’s them once again. But after finally winning a playoff series, replacing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Jorge Polanco, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan and others might be too challenging … But that’s only if anyone’s ready to provide resistance. Beware the Cleveland Guardians, whose hopes now don't totally hinge on the health of pitchers Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie; Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams give them a promising rotation core. … The Detroit Tigers snagged Maeda and Jack Flaherty but lost Eduardo Rodriguez, though the season may swing on the continued development of hitters Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson … … You’ll have to look elsewhere to find wags impressed with the Royals’ $400 million spending spree, which includes nearly $300 million to lock up franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Our panelists were unanimous in projecting a 72-90 season. Patience, Bobby. … Finally some regime change for the Chicago White Sox, yet new GM Chris Getz could only do so much with a 101-loss roster. Erick Fedde, back stateside after a stint in Korea, might be a bright spot.

AL West

What might a Houston Astros roster look like without Jose Altuve? Guess we’ll never find out … Despite varying degrees of tumult and frustration, the Seattle Mariners are right there once again, thanks to a deep pitching staff and a Julio Rodriguez-based core. Luke Raley and Mitches Garver and Haniger may not all mash, but they will improve the lineup. … The Texas Rangers won the World Series and then sent Max Scherzer (back) and Corey Seager (sports hernia) off to the operating room. Gonna be a weird title defense with pitchers Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and newcomer Tyler Mahle joining midstream, but the lineup will have Evan Carter for an entire season. … This Los Angeles Angels season seems even more aimless than the last, what with no Ohtani and no starting pitcher with a projected ERA that doesn’t begin with 4. … Old parlor game: Will any of these current Oakland Athletics be with the club when they move to Las Vegas? New parlor game: Where will the A’s play in 2025, 2026 – heck, 2036?

NL East

This would make it seven consecutive division titles for the Atlanta Braves, who merely needed to tweak last year’s machine and hope additions around the edges get them past the NLDS … That’s where their season ended the past two seasons at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies, who re-upped Aaron Nola and face another pending free agent ace in Zack Wheeler. A key year for this powerhouse. … The Miami Marlins didn’t do much to mitigate the loss of ace Sandy Alcantara, so their surprise run to a wild-card spot looks unlikely to repeat. … You can squint and maybe see a playoff spot in sight for the New York Mets, but only if their suddenly bargain-basement rotation holds up. Amazing that Pete Alonso is already a pending free agent. … The arrival of Dylan Crews and other top prospects will perk up what’s likely a third consecutive rebuilding year for the Washington Nationals.

NL Central

Welcome to the throw-a-dart division, and in this simulation, the Chicago Cubs hit the bullseye. With time still to augment the roster, new lefty Shota Imanaga gives the rotation a depth it hasn’t enjoyed in years. … No more sneak attack: The Cincinnati Reds are simply a solid squad who, like last year, will probably live or die with the health of their pitching. But that lineup is nice: Speed and power throughout and a bunch of young hitters still finding their ceiling. … Did the St. Louis Cardinals do enough? A much-anticipated offseason revamp added Sonny Gray (nice), innings-eater Kyle Gibson (cool) and old friend Lance Lynn (hmm) to the rotation. A net gain on last year’s 71-91 team, but is it enough? … The Corbin Burnes trade seemed to hang a Closed sign on the Milwaukee Brewers’ chances but as always, they’ll simply need to find another way to flourish. At least the Jackson Chourio era begins … 2023's No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes will walk into Pittsburgh Pirates camp as their far and away best pitcher. Gotta start somewhere.

NL West

The division title has never looked like more of a formality, in that there’s really only one serious threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rule. They’re already managing Walker Buehler’s return with an eye toward October, and wisely accumulated pitching depth around him. … Still, don’t totally count out the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose addition of Eduardo Rodriguez to Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly gives them a legit contender look, markedly better than the 84-win team that toppled the Dodgers and Phillies on their way to the World Series. … Are the San Francisco Giants ever not a work in progress? The Jorge Soler add brings much-needed pop and the Robbie Ray trade expunges some regrets of past offseasons. Still, Ray and Alex Cobb’s returns from surgery probably need to go optimally if they’re to contend. … Whither the San Diego Padres? Five years of go-for-broke has now yielded a stars-and-scrubs squad where nine-figure All-Stars Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Fernando Jr. Tatis power the lineup, yet massive holes remain elsewhere. If the 1-2-3 of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King stay healthy, wild-card contention is possible … The Colorado Rockies are ticketed for a sixth consecutive fourth- or fifth-place finish.